Uncertainty
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The definitions below refer to Adaptation to Climate Change.
Contents
Definitions
European Definitions
RESIN project
The RESIN project [1] gives the following definition:
A state of incomplete knowledge that can result from a lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. [2]
Other International Definitions
National Definitions
Germany
Uncertainty can result from lack of information or from divergent opinions about what is or can be known. [3]
There may be many causes of uncertainty: faulty data, ambiguous concepts and terminology, or uncertainty about how people will behave. Uncertainty may be expressed in figures – for example where different climate models arrive at different forecasts about the rise in temperature. however, uncertainty may also be a qualitative statement by a team of experts.
Norway
Usikkerheten knyttet til analyseresultatene uttrykkes gjennom en vurdering av kunnskapsgrunnlaget de bygger på og resultatenes følsomhet for endringer i scenarioets forutsetninger og sentrale antagelser i analysene. [4]
Uncertainty related to the analysis results is expressed through an assessment of the knowledge base they are built upon, and the sensitivity of the results to changes in the prerequisites for the scenario and key assumptions in the analyses. [5]
Uncertainty related to the analysis results is expressed through an assessment of the knowledge base they are built upon, and the sensitivity of the results to changes in the prerequisites for the scenario and key assumptions in the analyses. [5]
Sweden
Uncertainty in the context of National Risk Assessment refers to the type of knowledge that exists about a particular event and how reliable this knowledge is as a basis for assessing the likelihood that the event will occur, as well as its impacts, should the event actually occur. Uncertainty may thus refer to the assessment of likelihood and/or the assessment of impacts. [6]
United Kingdom (UK)
Uncertainty ia situation where the current state of knowledge is such that (1) the order or nature of things is unknown, (2) the consequences, extent, or magnitude of circumstances, conditions, or events is unpredictable, and (3) credible probabilities to possible outcomes cannot be assigned. [7]
United States
DHS
Uncertainty is the degree to which a calculated, estimated, or observed value may deviate from the true value. [8]
Standard Definition
Discussion Topic
See also
Notes
- ↑ http://www.resin-cities.eu/
- ↑ Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Annex II: Glossary. [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130.
- ↑ Combating Climate Change: The German Adaptation Strategy
- ↑ DSB, National Risikobild 2014
- ↑ DSB, National Risk Analysis 2014
- ↑ Swedish National Risk Assessment 2012
- ↑ The National Adaptation Programme: Making the country resilient to a changing climate, UK Government (2013)
- ↑ DHS Risk Lexicon 2010 Edition, September 2010
