Difference between revisions of "Uncertainty"
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=== European Definitions === | === European Definitions === | ||
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+ | {{definition|Uncertainty is an expression of the degree to which a value (e.g. the future state of the climate system) is unknown. <ref>[http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/help/glossary European Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT) Glossary]</ref>}}Uncertainty can result from lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have many types of sources, from quantifiable errors in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projections of human behaviour. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures, for example, a range of values calculated by various models, or by qualitative statements, for example, reflecting the judgement of a team of experts.<br/><br/> | ||
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==== RESIN project ==== | ==== RESIN project ==== | ||
{{quote-resin| A state of incomplete knowledge that can result from a lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. <ref>Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Annex II: Glossary. [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130.</ref> }} | {{quote-resin| A state of incomplete knowledge that can result from a lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. <ref>Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Annex II: Glossary. [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130.</ref> }} | ||
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Revision as of 22:15, 30 December 2016
The definitions below refer to Adaptation to Climate Change.
Definitions
European Definitions
CLIMATE-ADAPT
Uncertainty can result from lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have many types of sources, from quantifiable errors in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projections of human behaviour. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures, for example, a range of values calculated by various models, or by qualitative statements, for example, reflecting the judgement of a team of experts.
RESIN project
The RESIN project [2] gives the following definition:
Other International Definitions
National Definitions
Germany
There may be many causes of uncertainty: faulty data, ambiguous concepts and terminology, or uncertainty about how people will behave. Uncertainty may be expressed in figures – for example where different climate models arrive at different forecasts about the rise in temperature. however, uncertainty may also be a qualitative statement by a team of experts.
Norway
Uncertainty related to the analysis results is expressed through an assessment of the knowledge base they are built upon, and the sensitivity of the results to changes in the prerequisites for the scenario and key assumptions in the analyses. [6]
Sweden
United Kingdom (UK)
United States
DHS
Standard Definition
Discussion Topic
See also
Notes
- ↑ European Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT) Glossary
- ↑ http://www.resin-cities.eu/
- ↑ Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Annex II: Glossary. [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130.
- ↑ Combating Climate Change: The German Adaptation Strategy
- ↑ DSB, National Risikobild 2014
- ↑ DSB, National Risk Analysis 2014
- ↑ Swedish National Risk Assessment 2012
- ↑ The National Adaptation Programme: Making the country resilient to a changing climate, UK Government (2013)
- ↑ DHS Risk Lexicon 2010 Edition, September 2010