Scenario
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Contents
Definitions
European Definitions
European Commission
[Risk] scenario is a representation of one single-risk or multi-risk situation leading to significant impacts, selected for the purpose of assessing in more detail a particular type of risk for which it is representative, or constitutes an informative example or illustration. [1]
DIESIS project
The DIESIS project [2] gives the following definition:
A scenario consists of a CI Model, the initial states of all components and the scenario behaviour that describes the events that happen within the scenario.
RESIN project
The RESIN project [3] gives the following definition:
A plausible description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces (e.g. rate of technological change, prices) and relationships. [4]
Other International Definitions
IPCC
A plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. [5]
Scenarios may be derived from projections, but are often based on additional information from other sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline.
National Definitions
Canada
A hypothetical situation or chain of events that depicts an incident, emergency or crisis and that is delivered to exercise players through a narrative to guide simulation during an exercise.
Situation ou série d’événements hypothétiques décrivant un incident, une urgence ou une crise qui est présentée aux participants sous forme de récit afin de diriger la simulation lors d’un exercice. [6]
Situation ou série d’événements hypothétiques décrivant un incident, une urgence ou une crise qui est présentée aux participants sous forme de récit afin de diriger la simulation lors d’un exercice. [6]
Germany
A scenario is a situation or a sequence of events requiring a response from those participating in the [[Exercise|exercise]]. [7]
United Kingdom (UK)
Scenario is a plausible description of a possible future state of the world. [8]
These use specific assumptions on how aspects of the world might change, like economies, social trends, changes in technology, environmental changes, etc., based upon the best understanding available.
United States
DHS
Scenario is a hypothetical situation comprised of a hazard, an entity impacted by that hazard, and associated conditions including consequences when appropriate. [9]
NERC
A scenario is a possible event. [10]
Standard Definition
ISO 22300:2012(en)
Pre-planned storyline that drives an exercise; the stimuli used to achieve exercise objectives. [11]
Discussion Topic
A postulated sequence or development of events. - Oxford Dictionary.
See also
Notes
- ↑ European Commission, COMMISSION STAFF WORKING PAPER Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management, SEC(2010)1626 final, Brussels, 21.12.2010
- ↑ http://www.diesis-project.eu/
- ↑ http://www.resin-cities.eu/
- ↑ Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Annex II: Glossary. [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130.
- ↑ IPCC
- ↑ Vocabulaire de la gestion des urgencies/Emergency Management Emergency Management Vocabulary 281 (2012)
- ↑ IT Emergency and Crisis Exercises in Critical Infrastructures, BMI - Federal Ministry of the Interior (2007)
- ↑ The National Adaptation Programme: Making the country resilient to a changing climate, UK Government (2013)
- ↑ DHS Risk Lexicon 2010 Edition, September 2010
- ↑ NERC Glossary of Terms, May 2015
- ↑ ISO 22300:2012(en) Societal security — Terminology