Difference between revisions of "Scenario"

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==== [[Jordan]] ====
 
==== [[Jordan]] ====
 
{{definition|A scenario is a plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. <ref>[http://www.moenv.gov.jo/AR/PDFs/Climate%20change%20policy_PDF.pdf The National Climate Change Policy of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan 2013-2020]</ref>}}<br/><br/>
 
{{definition|A scenario is a plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. <ref>[http://www.moenv.gov.jo/AR/PDFs/Climate%20change%20policy_PDF.pdf The National Climate Change Policy of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan 2013-2020]</ref>}}<br/><br/>
 
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====[[Mexico]]====
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{{definition|Escenario climático: Representación plausible y a menudo simplificada del clima futuro, basada en un conjunto internamente coherente de relaciones climatológicas, que se construye para ser utilizada de forma explícita en la investigación de las consecuencias potenciales del cambio climático antropogénico, y que sirve a menudo de insumo para las simulaciones de los impactos. <ref>[http://www.ccpy.gob.mx/glosario-terminos-ipcc.pdf Glosario IPCC, Mexico]</ref>}}Las proyecciones climáticas sirven a menudo como materia prima para la construcción de escenarios climáticos, pero los escenarios climáticos requieren información adicional, por ejemplo, acerca del clima observado en un momento determinado. Un ‘escenario de cambio climático’ es la diferencia entre un escenario climático y el clima actual.<br /><br/>
 
==== [[Netherlands]]====
 
==== [[Netherlands]]====
 
{{definition|[Dutch; fire fighting] Een keten van [[Event|gebeurtenissen]] die zich voordoet vanaf het ontstaan van brand,zonder hierbij te bepalen of de kans op brand realistisch is. <ref>[https://www.brandweer.nl/publish/pages/risico_beoordeling_16_0_bhm_2015.pdf Risicobeoordeling 16.0: Een kansrijk kader; Theorie achter het risicomanagementproces en leidraad voor risicobeoordeling, June 2015]</ref>}}<br /><br/>
 
{{definition|[Dutch; fire fighting] Een keten van [[Event|gebeurtenissen]] die zich voordoet vanaf het ontstaan van brand,zonder hierbij te bepalen of de kans op brand realistisch is. <ref>[https://www.brandweer.nl/publish/pages/risico_beoordeling_16_0_bhm_2015.pdf Risicobeoordeling 16.0: Een kansrijk kader; Theorie achter het risicomanagementproces en leidraad voor risicobeoordeling, June 2015]</ref>}}<br /><br/>
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{{#set:defined by=EU|defined by=EU-project|defined by=IAEA|defined by=IPCC|defined by=Canada|defined by=Denmark|defined by=Germany|defined by=Italy|defined by=Jordan|defined by=Mexico|defined by=Netherlands|defined by=Sweden|defined by=United Kingdom|defined by=United States|defined by=NERC|defined by=ISO|defined by=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)}}
 
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Revision as of 23:50, 19 March 2017


Definitions

European Definitions

European Commission

[Risk] scenario is a representation of one single-risk or multi-risk situation leading to significant impacts, selected for the purpose of assessing in more detail a particular type of risk for which it is representative, or constitutes an informative example or illustration. [1]


CLIMATE-ADAPT

Scenario is a plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. [2]

Scenarios may be derived from projections, but are often based on additional information from other sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline.

European Project Definitions

CIPRNet project

The CIPRNet project [3] uses the following definition:

A scenario consists of a CI Model, the initial states of all components and the scenario behaviour that describes the events that happen

within the scenario.


DIESIS project

The DIESIS project [4] gives the following definition:

A scenario consists of a CI Model, the initial states of all components and the scenario behaviour that describes the events that happen

within the scenario.



RESIN project

The RESIN project [5] gives the following definition:

A plausible description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces (e.g. rate of technological change, prices) and relationships. [6]


Other International Definitions

IAEA

Scenario is a postulated or assumed set of conditions and/or events. [7]

Most commonly used in analysis or assessment to represent possible future conditions and/or events to be modelled, such as possible accidents {...}. A scenario may represent the conditions at a single point in time or a single event, or a time history of conditions and/or events (including processes).

IPCC

A plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. [8]

Scenarios may be derived from projections, but are often based on additional information from other sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline.

National Definitions

Canada

A hypothetical situation or chain of events that depicts an incident, emergency or crisis and that is delivered to exercise players through a narrative to guide simulation during an exercise.

Situation ou série d’événements hypothétiques décrivant un incident, une urgence ou une crise qui est présentée aux participants sous forme de récit afin de diriger la simulation lors d’un exercice. [9]



Denmark

Et scenarie er en tænkt ulykke/begivenhed til belysning af, hvordan en risiko kan udmønte sig i praksis i form af hændelsesforløb og konsekvenser. [10]



Germany

A scenario is a situation or a sequence of events requiring a response from those participating in the exercise. [11]


Szenario: Annahme von möglichen Ereignissen oder Abfolgen von Ereignissen und deren Einwirkungen auf Schutzgüter. [12]



Italy

Scenario dell’evento: Evoluzione nello spazio e nel tempo del solo evento prefigurato, atteso e/o in atto, pur nella sua completezza e complessità. [13]



Jordan

A scenario is a plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. [14]



Mexico

Escenario climático: Representación plausible y a menudo simplificada del clima futuro, basada en un conjunto internamente coherente de relaciones climatológicas, que se construye para ser utilizada de forma explícita en la investigación de las consecuencias potenciales del cambio climático antropogénico, y que sirve a menudo de insumo para las simulaciones de los impactos. [15]

Las proyecciones climáticas sirven a menudo como materia prima para la construcción de escenarios climáticos, pero los escenarios climáticos requieren información adicional, por ejemplo, acerca del clima observado en un momento determinado. Un ‘escenario de cambio climático’ es la diferencia entre un escenario climático y el clima actual.

Netherlands

[Dutch; fire fighting] Een keten van gebeurtenissen die zich voordoet vanaf het ontstaan van brand,zonder hierbij te bepalen of de kans op brand realistisch is. [16]



Sweden

A scenario refers to a hypothetical event for which variables such as place, time, weather etc., and their values have been specified. [17]



United Kingdom (UK)

Scenario is a plausible description of a possible future state of the world. [18]

These use specific assumptions on how aspects of the world might change, like economies, social trends, changes in technology, environmental changes, etc., based upon the best understanding available.

United States

DHS
Scenario is a hypothetical situation comprised of a hazard, an entity impacted by that hazard, and associated conditions including consequences when appropriate. [19]


NERC
A scenario is a possible event. [20]



Standard Definition

ISO 22300:2012(en)

Pre-planned storyline that drives an exercise; the stimuli used to achieve exercise objectives. [21]

Discussion Topic

A postulated sequence or development of events. - Oxford Dictionary.

See also

Notes

  1. European Commission, COMMISSION STAFF WORKING PAPER Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management, SEC(2010)1626 final, Brussels, 21.12.2010
  2. European Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT) Glossary
  3. http://www.ciprnet.eu/
  4. http://www.diesis-project.eu/
  5. http://www.resin-cities.eu/
  6. Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Annex II: Glossary. [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130.
  7. IAEA - Nuclear Security Series Glossary Version 1.3 (November 2015)
  8. IPCC
  9. Vocabulaire de la gestion des urgencies/Emergency Management Emergency Management Vocabulary 281 (2012)
  10. [HÅNDBOG I RISIKOBASERET DIMENSIONERING, Beredskabsstyrelsen, Denmark (2004)]
  11. IT Emergency and Crisis Exercises in Critical Infrastructures, BMI - Federal Ministry of the Interior (2007)
  12. Methode für die Risikoanalyse im Bevölkerungsschutz
  13. Dipartimento della Protezione Civile Glossario
  14. The National Climate Change Policy of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan 2013-2020
  15. Glosario IPCC, Mexico
  16. Risicobeoordeling 16.0: Een kansrijk kader; Theorie achter het risicomanagementproces en leidraad voor risicobeoordeling, June 2015
  17. Swedish National Risk Assessment 2012
  18. The National Adaptation Programme: Making the country resilient to a changing climate, UK Government (2013)
  19. DHS Risk Lexicon 2010 Edition, September 2010
  20. NERC Glossary of Terms, May 2015
  21. ISO 22300:2012(en) Societal security — Terminology

References