Difference between revisions of "Scenario"

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=== European Definitions ===
 
=== European Definitions ===
==== European Commission ====
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==== [[EU|European Commission]] ====
{{definition|[Risk] scenario is a representation of one single-[[risk]] or multi-[[risk]] situation leading to significant [[impact]]s, selected for the purpose of assessing in more detail a particular type of risk for which it is representative, or constitutes an informative example or illustration. <ref>[http://ec.europa.eu/echo/files/about/COMM_PDF_SEC_2010_1626_F_staff_working_document_en.pdf European Commission, COMMISSION STAFF WORKING PAPER Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management, SEC(2010)1626 final, Brussels, 21.12.2010]</ref>}}
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{{definition|[Risk] scenario is a representation of one single-[[risk]] or multi-[[risk]] situation leading to significant [[impact]]s, selected for the purpose of assessing in more detail a particular type of risk for which it is representative, or constitutes an informative example or illustration. <ref>[http://ec.europa.eu/echo/files/about/COMM_PDF_SEC_2010_1626_F_staff_working_document_en.pdf European Commission, COMMISSION STAFF WORKING PAPER Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management, SEC(2010)1626 final, Brussels, 21.12.2010]</ref>}}<br/>
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==== [[CLIMATE-ADAPT]] ====
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{{definition|Scenario is a plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. <ref>[http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/help/glossary European Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT) Glossary]</ref>}}Scenarios may be derived from projections, but are often based on additional information from other sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline. <br/>
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===== [[ENTSO-E]] =====
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{{definition|Scenario: The forecasted status of the power system for a given timeframe. <ref name="ENTSO-E">[https://docstore.entsoe.eu/data/data-portal/glossary/Pages/home.aspx ENTSO-E Glossary of Terms]</ref>}}
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<br/>
  
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=== European Project Definitions ===
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==== CIPRNet project ====
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{{quote-ciprnet|A scenario consists of a [[CI Model]], the initial states of all [[component]]s
 +
and the [[Scenario Behaviour|scenario behaviour]] that describes the [[event]]s that happen
 +
within the scenario.}}<br/>
 
==== DIESIS project ====
 
==== DIESIS project ====
{{quote-diesis|
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{{quote-diesis|A scenario consists of a [[CI Model]], the initial states of all [[component]]s
A scenario consists of a [[CI model]], the initial states of all [[component]]s
 
 
and the [[scenario behaviour]] that describes the [[event]]s that happen
 
and the [[scenario behaviour]] that describes the [[event]]s that happen
within the scenario.
+
within the scenario.}}<br/>
}}
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==== RESIN project ====
 +
{{quote-resin| A plausible description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces (e.g. rate of technological change, prices) and relationships. <ref>Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Annex II: Glossary. [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130.</ref> }}
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=== Other International Definitions ===
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==== [[IAEA]] ====
 +
{{definition|Scenario is a postulated or assumed set of conditions and/or [[event|events]]. <ref>[https://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/security/nuclear-security-series-glossary-v1-3.pdf IAEA - Nuclear Security Series Glossary Version 1.3 (November 2015)]</ref>}}Most commonly used in analysis or assessment to represent possible future conditions and/or events to be modelled, such as possible accidents {...}. A scenario may represent the conditions at a single point in time or a single event, or a time history of conditions and/or events (including processes). <br/>
  
=== Other International Definitions ===
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==== IPCC ====
<!-- Insert here definitions from international organizations, if available. Each new definition should be formatted as a heading level 4, followed by the unformatted text of the definition. An example follows below: -->
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{{definition|A plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships.  <ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX-Annex_Glossary.pdf IPCC]</ref>}}Scenarios may be derived from projections, but are often based on additional information from other sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline.<br/><br/>
==== United Nations’ Definition ====
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==== [[UNISDR]] ====
<!-- Insert the definition found in the document “2009 UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction” (this is an example). -->
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{{definition|Scenarios: An account or synopsis of a possible course of events that could occur, including the development of hypothetical impact.  <ref> [https://www.unisdr.org/files/594_10382.pdf Words Into Action: A Guide for Implementing the Hyogo Framework; Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters]</ref>}}These scenarios form the basis for planning [[prevention]],[[mitigation]] or [[preparedness]].<br/><br/>
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==== [[WHO]] ====
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{{definition|Scenario: An account or synopsis of a possible course of [[Event|events]] that could occur, which forms the basis for planning assumptions (for example, a river floods, covering a nearby town and wiping out the local population's crop). <ref>[http://www.who.int/hac/about/definitions/en/ WHO: Glossary of Humanitarian Terms]</ref>}}<br/><br/>
  
 
=== National Definitions ===
 
=== National Definitions ===
====Germany====  
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==== [[Canada]] ====
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{{definition|A hypothetical situation or chain of events that depicts an incident, emergency or crisis and that is delivered to [[exercise]] players through a narrative to guide simulation during an [[exercise]]. <br /><br />Situation ou série d’événements hypothétiques décrivant un incident, une urgence ou une crise qui est présentée aux participants sous forme de récit afin de diriger la simulation lors d’un exercice. <ref name="canada">[http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2012/tpsgc-pwgsc/S52-2-281-2012.pdf Vocabulaire de la gestion des urgencies/Emergency Management Emergency Management Vocabulary 281 (2012)]</ref>}} <br /><br/>
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==== [[Denmark]] ====
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{{definition|Et scenarie er en tænkt ulykke/begivenhed til belysning af, hvordan en risiko kan udmønte sig i praksis i form af hændelsesforløb og konsekvenser. <ref>[https://brs.dk/viden/publikationer/Documents/RBDhaandbog.pdf HÅNDBOG I RISIKOBASERET DIMENSIONERING, Beredskabsstyrelsen, Denmark (2004)]</ref>}}<br /><br/>
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====[[Germany]]====  
 
{{definition| A scenario is a situation or a sequence of [[event|events]] requiring a response from those participating in the [[Exercise|exercise]]. <ref name="UPKRITIS">[https://www.bmi.bund.de/cae/servlet/contentblob/560098/publicationFile/27811/kritis_3_eng.pdf IT Emergency and Crisis Exercises in Critical Infrastructures, BMI - Federal Ministry of the Interior (2007)]</ref>}}<br />
 
{{definition| A scenario is a situation or a sequence of [[event|events]] requiring a response from those participating in the [[Exercise|exercise]]. <ref name="UPKRITIS">[https://www.bmi.bund.de/cae/servlet/contentblob/560098/publicationFile/27811/kritis_3_eng.pdf IT Emergency and Crisis Exercises in Critical Infrastructures, BMI - Federal Ministry of the Interior (2007)]</ref>}}<br />
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{{definition|Szenario: Annahme von möglichen Ereignissen oder Abfolgen von Ereignissen und deren Einwirkungen auf Schutzgüter.  <ref>[http://www.bbk.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/BBK/DE/Publikationen/Wissenschaftsforum/Bd8_Methode-Risikoanalyse-BS.pdf Methode für die Risikoanalyse im Bevölkerungsschutz]</ref>}}<br/><br/>
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==== [[Italy]] ====
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{{definition|Scenario dell’evento: Evoluzione nello spazio e nel tempo del solo evento prefigurato, atteso e/o in atto, pur nella sua completezza e complessità.  <ref>[http://www.protezionecivile.gov.it/jcms/it/glossario.wp Dipartimento della Protezione Civile  Glossario]</ref>}}<br/><br/>
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==== [[Jordan]] ====
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{{definition|A scenario is a plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. <ref>[http://www.moenv.gov.jo/AR/PDFs/Climate%20change%20policy_PDF.pdf The National Climate Change Policy of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan 2013-2020]</ref>}}<br/><br/>
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====[[Mexico]]====
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{{definition|Escenario climático: Representación plausible y a menudo simplificada del clima futuro, basada en un conjunto internamente coherente de relaciones climatológicas, que se construye para ser utilizada de forma explícita en la investigación de las consecuencias potenciales del cambio climático antropogénico, y que sirve a menudo de insumo para las simulaciones de los impactos. <ref>[http://www.ccpy.gob.mx/glosario-terminos-ipcc.pdf Glosario IPCC, Mexico]</ref>}}Las proyecciones climáticas sirven a menudo como materia prima para la construcción de escenarios climáticos, pero los escenarios climáticos requieren información adicional, por ejemplo, acerca del clima observado en un momento determinado. Un ‘escenario de cambio climático’ es la diferencia entre un escenario climático y el clima actual.<br /><br/>
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==== [[Netherlands]]====
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{{definition|[Dutch; fire fighting] Een keten van [[Event|gebeurtenissen]] die zich voordoet vanaf het ontstaan van brand,zonder hierbij te bepalen of de kans op brand realistisch is. <ref>[https://www.brandweer.nl/publish/pages/risico_beoordeling_16_0_bhm_2015.pdf Risicobeoordeling 16.0: Een kansrijk kader; Theorie achter het risicomanagementproces en leidraad voor risicobeoordeling, June 2015]</ref>}}<br /><br/>
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====[[Spain]]====
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{{definition|Escenario: En un contexto no artístico, conjunto de factores que condicionan un posible estado futuro de un sistema determinado.  <ref>[http://www.mapama.gob.es/es/cambio-climatico/temas/impactos-vulnerabilidad-y-adaptacion/anexo2_glosario_2_tcm7-12437.pdf Glosario Mapama, government Spain]</ref>}}Esta acepción es un anglicismo ya muy extendido en castellano, que aún no recoge el Diccionario de la Real Academia de la Lengua. <br /><br/>
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==== [[Sweden]] ====
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{{definition|A scenario refers to a hypothetical [[event]] for which variables such as place, time, weather etc., and their values have been specified. <ref>[https://www.msb.se/RibData/Filer/pdf/26621.pdf Swedish National  Risk Assessment 2012]</ref>}}<br/><br/>
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==== [[United Kingdom|United Kingdom (UK)]] ====
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{{definition|Scenario is a plausible description of a possible future state of the world. <ref>[https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/209866/pb13942-nap-20130701.pdf The National Adaptation Programme: Making the country resilient to a changing climate, UK Government (2013)]</ref>}} These use specific assumptions on how aspects of the world might change, like economies, social trends, changes in technology, environmental changes, etc., based upon the best understanding available.<br /><br/>
  
==== United States ====
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==== [[United States]] ====
===== NERC =====
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===== [[DHS]]  =====
{{definition|A scenario is a possible event. <ref name="NERC">[http://www.nerc.com/files/glossary_of_terms.pdf NERC Glossary of Terms, 2014]</ref>}}
 
===== DHS =====
 
 
{{definition|Scenario is a hypothetical situation comprised of a [[hazard]], an entity impacted by that hazard, and associated conditions including consequences when appropriate. <ref name="DHSLex"> [http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/dhs-risk-lexicon-2010.pdf DHS Risk Lexicon 2010 Edition, September 2010]</ref>}}<br />
 
{{definition|Scenario is a hypothetical situation comprised of a [[hazard]], an entity impacted by that hazard, and associated conditions including consequences when appropriate. <ref name="DHSLex"> [http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/dhs-risk-lexicon-2010.pdf DHS Risk Lexicon 2010 Edition, September 2010]</ref>}}<br />
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===== [[NERC]] =====
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{{definition|A scenario is a possible event. <ref name="NERC">[http://www.nerc.com/files/glossary_of_terms.pdf NERC Glossary of Terms, May 2015]</ref>}}<br/>
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=====[[NIST]]=====
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{{definition|Scenario is a sequential, narrative account of a hypothetical incident that provides the catalyst for the exercise and is intended to introduce situations that will inspire responses and thus allow demonstration of the exercise objectives. (from: NIST SP 800-04) <ref name=NIST>[https://csrc.nist.gov/Glossary NIST Glossary]</ref>}}<br/>
  
 
===Standard Definition===
 
===Standard Definition===
<!--Insert the text of the definition. Each definition should be formatted as a heading level 4, followed by the text of the definition. -->
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==== [[ISO|ISO 22300:2012(en)]] ====
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{{definition|Pre-planned storyline that drives an [[exercise]]; the stimuli used to achieve [[exercise]] objectives. <ref>ISO 22300:2012(en) Societal security — Terminology</ref>}}
  
 
== Discussion Topic ==
 
== Discussion Topic ==
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==See also==
 
==See also==
 
<!-- Add links to related terms -->
 
<!-- Add links to related terms -->
 
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* [[Scenario Behaviour]]
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* [[Simulation]]
  
 
==Notes==
 
==Notes==
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[[Category:DIESIS-Glossary]]
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[[Category:Simulation]][[Category:CIPRNet-Glossary]][[Category:DIESIS-Glossary]]
[[Category:Simulation]]
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{{#set:defined by=EU|defined by=ENTSO-E|defined by=EU-project|defined by=IAEA|defined by=IPCC|defined by=Canada|defined by=Denmark|defined by=Germany|defined by=Italy|defined by=Jordan|defined by=Mexico|defined by=Netherlands|defined by=Spain|defined by=Sweden|defined by=United Kingdom|defined by=United States|defined by=NERC|defined by=ISO|defined by=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)|defined by=UNISDR|defined by=WHO|defined by=NIST}}
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[[Category:RESIN-Glossary]]
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{{#set: Showmainpage=Yes}}

Latest revision as of 11:25, 24 January 2020


Definitions

European Definitions

European Commission

[Risk] scenario is a representation of one single-risk or multi-risk situation leading to significant impacts, selected for the purpose of assessing in more detail a particular type of risk for which it is representative, or constitutes an informative example or illustration. [1]


CLIMATE-ADAPT

Scenario is a plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. [2]

Scenarios may be derived from projections, but are often based on additional information from other sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline.

ENTSO-E
Scenario: The forecasted status of the power system for a given timeframe. [3]


European Project Definitions

CIPRNet project

The CIPRNet project [4] uses the following definition:

A scenario consists of a CI Model, the initial states of all components and the scenario behaviour that describes the events that happen

within the scenario.


DIESIS project

The DIESIS project [5] gives the following definition:

A scenario consists of a CI Model, the initial states of all components and the scenario behaviour that describes the events that happen

within the scenario.



RESIN project

The RESIN project [6] gives the following definition:

A plausible description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces (e.g. rate of technological change, prices) and relationships. [7]


Other International Definitions

IAEA

Scenario is a postulated or assumed set of conditions and/or events. [8]

Most commonly used in analysis or assessment to represent possible future conditions and/or events to be modelled, such as possible accidents {...}. A scenario may represent the conditions at a single point in time or a single event, or a time history of conditions and/or events (including processes).

IPCC

A plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. [9]

Scenarios may be derived from projections, but are often based on additional information from other sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline.

UNISDR

Scenarios: An account or synopsis of a possible course of events that could occur, including the development of hypothetical impact. [10]

These scenarios form the basis for planning prevention,mitigation or preparedness.

WHO

Scenario: An account or synopsis of a possible course of events that could occur, which forms the basis for planning assumptions (for example, a river floods, covering a nearby town and wiping out the local population's crop). [11]



National Definitions

Canada

A hypothetical situation or chain of events that depicts an incident, emergency or crisis and that is delivered to exercise players through a narrative to guide simulation during an exercise.

Situation ou série d’événements hypothétiques décrivant un incident, une urgence ou une crise qui est présentée aux participants sous forme de récit afin de diriger la simulation lors d’un exercice. [12]



Denmark

Et scenarie er en tænkt ulykke/begivenhed til belysning af, hvordan en risiko kan udmønte sig i praksis i form af hændelsesforløb og konsekvenser. [13]



Germany

A scenario is a situation or a sequence of events requiring a response from those participating in the exercise. [14]


Szenario: Annahme von möglichen Ereignissen oder Abfolgen von Ereignissen und deren Einwirkungen auf Schutzgüter. [15]



Italy

Scenario dell’evento: Evoluzione nello spazio e nel tempo del solo evento prefigurato, atteso e/o in atto, pur nella sua completezza e complessità. [16]



Jordan

A scenario is a plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. [17]



Mexico

Escenario climático: Representación plausible y a menudo simplificada del clima futuro, basada en un conjunto internamente coherente de relaciones climatológicas, que se construye para ser utilizada de forma explícita en la investigación de las consecuencias potenciales del cambio climático antropogénico, y que sirve a menudo de insumo para las simulaciones de los impactos. [18]

Las proyecciones climáticas sirven a menudo como materia prima para la construcción de escenarios climáticos, pero los escenarios climáticos requieren información adicional, por ejemplo, acerca del clima observado en un momento determinado. Un ‘escenario de cambio climático’ es la diferencia entre un escenario climático y el clima actual.

Netherlands

[Dutch; fire fighting] Een keten van gebeurtenissen die zich voordoet vanaf het ontstaan van brand,zonder hierbij te bepalen of de kans op brand realistisch is. [19]



Spain

Escenario: En un contexto no artístico, conjunto de factores que condicionan un posible estado futuro de un sistema determinado. [20]

Esta acepción es un anglicismo ya muy extendido en castellano, que aún no recoge el Diccionario de la Real Academia de la Lengua.

Sweden

A scenario refers to a hypothetical event for which variables such as place, time, weather etc., and their values have been specified. [21]



United Kingdom (UK)

Scenario is a plausible description of a possible future state of the world. [22]

These use specific assumptions on how aspects of the world might change, like economies, social trends, changes in technology, environmental changes, etc., based upon the best understanding available.

United States

DHS
Scenario is a hypothetical situation comprised of a hazard, an entity impacted by that hazard, and associated conditions including consequences when appropriate. [23]


NERC
A scenario is a possible event. [24]


NIST
Scenario is a sequential, narrative account of a hypothetical incident that provides the catalyst for the exercise and is intended to introduce situations that will inspire responses and thus allow demonstration of the exercise objectives. (from: NIST SP 800-04) [25]


Standard Definition

ISO 22300:2012(en)

Pre-planned storyline that drives an exercise; the stimuli used to achieve exercise objectives. [26]

Discussion Topic

A postulated sequence or development of events. - Oxford Dictionary.

See also

Notes

  1. European Commission, COMMISSION STAFF WORKING PAPER Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management, SEC(2010)1626 final, Brussels, 21.12.2010
  2. European Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT) Glossary
  3. ENTSO-E Glossary of Terms
  4. http://www.ciprnet.eu/
  5. http://www.diesis-project.eu/
  6. http://www.resin-cities.eu/
  7. Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Annex II: Glossary. [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130.
  8. IAEA - Nuclear Security Series Glossary Version 1.3 (November 2015)
  9. IPCC
  10. Words Into Action: A Guide for Implementing the Hyogo Framework; Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters
  11. WHO: Glossary of Humanitarian Terms
  12. Vocabulaire de la gestion des urgencies/Emergency Management Emergency Management Vocabulary 281 (2012)
  13. HÅNDBOG I RISIKOBASERET DIMENSIONERING, Beredskabsstyrelsen, Denmark (2004)
  14. IT Emergency and Crisis Exercises in Critical Infrastructures, BMI - Federal Ministry of the Interior (2007)
  15. Methode für die Risikoanalyse im Bevölkerungsschutz
  16. Dipartimento della Protezione Civile Glossario
  17. The National Climate Change Policy of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan 2013-2020
  18. Glosario IPCC, Mexico
  19. Risicobeoordeling 16.0: Een kansrijk kader; Theorie achter het risicomanagementproces en leidraad voor risicobeoordeling, June 2015
  20. Glosario Mapama, government Spain
  21. Swedish National Risk Assessment 2012
  22. The National Adaptation Programme: Making the country resilient to a changing climate, UK Government (2013)
  23. DHS Risk Lexicon 2010 Edition, September 2010
  24. NERC Glossary of Terms, May 2015
  25. NIST Glossary
  26. ISO 22300:2012(en) Societal security — Terminology

References