Difference between revisions of "Likelihood"

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=== National Definitions ===
 
=== National Definitions ===
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==== [[Canada]] ====
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{{definition|Likelihood: The chance of an event or incident happening, whether defined, measured or determined objectively or subjectively.<br /><br />Vraisemblance: Possibilité qu’un événement ou un incident se produise, que celle-ci soit définie, mesurée ou déterminée de manière objective ou subjective. <ref name="canada">[http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2012/tpsgc-pwgsc/S52-2-281-2012.pdf Vocabulaire de la gestion des urgencies/Emergency Management Emergency Management Vocabulary 281 (2012)]</ref>}}<br/><br/>
 
==== [[Norway]] ====
 
==== [[Norway]] ====
 
{{definition|(I risikoanalyser) brukes ofte sannsynlighet som mål på hvor trolig vi mener det er at en bestemt hendelse vil inntreffe, gitt vårt kunnskapsgrunnlag. <ref>[https://www.dsb.no/globalassets/dokumenter/rapporter/nrb_2014.pdf DSB, National Risikobild 2014]</ref><br/><br/>(In [[Risk Analysis|risk analyses]]) likelihood is often used as an expression of how likely we think it is that a specific [[event]] will occur, given our knowledge base.  <ref>[http://www.dsbinfo.no/DSBno/2015/Andre/NationalRiskAnalysis2014/ DSB, National Risk Analysis 2014]</ref>}}<br/><br/>
 
{{definition|(I risikoanalyser) brukes ofte sannsynlighet som mål på hvor trolig vi mener det er at en bestemt hendelse vil inntreffe, gitt vårt kunnskapsgrunnlag. <ref>[https://www.dsb.no/globalassets/dokumenter/rapporter/nrb_2014.pdf DSB, National Risikobild 2014]</ref><br/><br/>(In [[Risk Analysis|risk analyses]]) likelihood is often used as an expression of how likely we think it is that a specific [[event]] will occur, given our knowledge base.  <ref>[http://www.dsbinfo.no/DSBno/2015/Andre/NationalRiskAnalysis2014/ DSB, National Risk Analysis 2014]</ref>}}<br/><br/>
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{{#set:defined by=EU|defined by=United States|defined by=ISO|defined by=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)}}
 
[[Category:CIPRNet-Glossary]][[Category:RESIN-Glossary]]
 
[[Category:CIPRNet-Glossary]][[Category:RESIN-Glossary]]
{{#set:defined by=EU project|defined by=IPCC|defined by=UN|defined by=United Kingdom|defined by=Norway|defined by=United States|defined by=DHS|defined by=NIST}}
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{{#set:defined by=EU project|defined by=IPCC|defined by=UN|defined by=Canda|defined by=United Kingdom|defined by=Norway|defined by=United States|defined by=DHS|defined by=NIST}}

Revision as of 00:05, 10 November 2017

Definitions

EU Definitions

CLIMATE-ADAPT

The likelihood of an occurrence, an outcome or a result, where this can be estimated probabilistically. [1]



European Project Definitions

CIPRNet project

The CIPRNet project [2] uses the following definition:

Likelihood is the chance of something happening.


RESIN project

The RESIN project [3] gives the following definition:

The chance of a specific outcome occurring, where this might be estimated probabilistically. [4]


Other International Definitions

IPCC

Likelihood: A probabilistic estimate of the occurrence of a single event or of an outcome, for example, a climate parameter, observed trend, or projected change lying in a given range. Likelihood may be based on statistical or modeling analyses, elicitation of expert views, or other quantitative analyses. [5]



National Definitions

Canada

Likelihood: The chance of an event or incident happening, whether defined, measured or determined objectively or subjectively.

Vraisemblance: Possibilité qu’un événement ou un incident se produise, que celle-ci soit définie, mesurée ou déterminée de manière objective ou subjective. [6]



Norway

(I risikoanalyser) brukes ofte sannsynlighet som mål på hvor trolig vi mener det er at en bestemt hendelse vil inntreffe, gitt vårt kunnskapsgrunnlag. [7]

(In risk analyses) likelihood is often used as an expression of how likely we think it is that a specific event will occur, given our knowledge base. [8]



United Kingdom (UK)

Likelihood is the chance of an event or outcome occurring, usually expressed as a probability. [9]



United States

DHS
Estimate of the potential of an incident or event’s occurrence. [10]


NIST
Likelihood: A weighted factor based on a subjective analysis of the probability that a given threat is capable of exploiting a given vulnerability. (from: NIST SP 800-161) [11]


Standard Definition

ISA

Likelihood is the quantitative estimation that an action, event or incident may occur. [12]


ISO 73:2009

Chance of something happening. [13]

Discussion Topic

See also

Notes

  1. European Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT) Glossary
  2. http://www.ciprnet.eu/
  3. http://www.resin-cities.eu/
  4. Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Annex II: Glossary. [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130.
  5. IPCC, 2012: Glossary of terms. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.). A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 555-564.]
  6. Vocabulaire de la gestion des urgencies/Emergency Management Emergency Management Vocabulary 281 (2012)
  7. DSB, National Risikobild 2014
  8. DSB, National Risk Analysis 2014
  9. The National Adaptation Programme: Making the country resilient to a changing climate, UK Government (2013)
  10. DHS Risk Lexicon 2010 Edition, September 2010
  11. NIST Glossary
  12. ISA WG7; IEC 62443-2-1(2010-11)
  13. ISO Guide 73:2009 Risk management -- Vocabulary