Difference between revisions of "Likelihood"

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=Definitions=
 
=Definitions=
 
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=== EU Definitions ===
 
=== EU Definitions ===
 
==== [[CLIMATE-ADAPT]] ====
 
==== [[CLIMATE-ADAPT]] ====

Revision as of 23:40, 27 October 2017

Definitions

EU Definitions

CLIMATE-ADAPT

The likelihood of an occurrence, an outcome or a result, where this can be estimated probabilistically. [1]



European Project Definitions

CIPRNet project

The CIPRNet project [2] uses the following definition:

Likelihood is the chance of something happening.


RESIN project

The RESIN project [3] gives the following definition:

The chance of a specific outcome occurring, where this might be estimated probabilistically. [4]


Other International Definitions

IPCC

Likelihood: A probabilistic estimate of the occurrence of a single event or of an outcome, for example, a climate parameter, observed trend, or projected change lying in a given range. Likelihood may be based on statistical or modeling analyses, elicitation of expert views, or other quantitative analyses. [5]



National Definitions

Norway

(I risikoanalyser) brukes ofte sannsynlighet som mål på hvor trolig vi mener det er at en bestemt hendelse vil inntreffe, gitt vårt kunnskapsgrunnlag. [6]

(In risk analyses) likelihood is often used as an expression of how likely we think it is that a specific event will occur, given our knowledge base. [7]



United Kingdom (UK)

Likelihood is the chance of an event or outcome occurring, usually expressed as a probability. [8]



United States

DHS
Estimate of the potential of an incident or event’s occurrence. [9]


NIST
Likelihood: A weighted factor based on a subjective analysis of the probability that a given threat is capable of exploiting a given vulnerability. (from: NIST SP 800-161) [10]


Standard Definition

ISA

Likelihood is the quantitative estimation that an action, event or incident may occur. [11]


ISO 73:2009

Chance of something happening. [12]

Discussion Topic

See also

Notes

  1. European Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT) Glossary
  2. http://www.ciprnet.eu/
  3. http://www.resin-cities.eu/
  4. Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Annex II: Glossary. [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130.
  5. IPCC, 2012: Glossary of terms. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.). A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 555-564.]
  6. DSB, National Risikobild 2014
  7. DSB, National Risk Analysis 2014
  8. The National Adaptation Programme: Making the country resilient to a changing climate, UK Government (2013)
  9. DHS Risk Lexicon 2010 Edition, September 2010
  10. NIST Glossary
  11. ISA WG7; IEC 62443-2-1(2010-11)
  12. ISO Guide 73:2009 Risk management -- Vocabulary